Brazil

Positive outlook to continue

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Following the strong performance in 2004, economic growth is likely to moderate in 2005-06, with domestic demand expected to continue to be the main engine of growth. A further decline in unemployment and rising real wages will sustain the recovery in private consumption, and the positive outlook is set to continue to encourage private investment.
The external adjustment is also expected to continue, facilitated by the recovery in the world economy, but the trade surplus is set to taper off, owing predominantly to rising imports fuelled by the recovery in domestic demand. As a result, the external current account surplus is expected to shrink during 2005-06. The outlook is contingent on the maintenance of sound policies.Fiscal policy remains stronger than expected, despite pressure for higher investment in infrastructure, and the monetary authorities must remain vigilant about price developments. After all, this outlook is not without risks, particularly from high oil prices and inflationary pressures associated with emerging bottlenecks in manufacturing.
Population (000s), 2003178 985
Area (000 sq km)8 515
CurrencyReal
GDP (Billion USD), 2003505
Life expectancy at birth (Women, Men), 2003 75.2, 67.6
Total labour force (000s), 200387 788
Government typeFederal Republic
Indicators% change unless otherwise indicated
200420052006
Real GDP growth4.53.63.5
Inflation (end-year)7.36.05.0
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.8-2.3
Primary fiscal balance (% of GDP)4.54.34.3
Current account balance(% of GDP)1.50.4-0.2
Source: OECD© OECD Observer No 245, November 2004


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