The monetary easing cycle came to an end in September, following a cumulative 500 basis-point cut in the policy interest rate over the previous 12 months. Fiscal outcomes continue to weaken due to cyclical factors, a ratcheting-up of recurrent expenditure, especially the central government payroll, and the discretionary measures that have been put in place in response to the global crisis. The end-year fiscal target is therefore unlikely to be met. A judiciously planned withdrawal of policy stimulus would be advisable from early 2010, if the recovery is well in hand, as expected.
©OECD Observer 2010