Now is an opportune time to deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies.
Recent years have seen a rapid rise in digital transactions, notably through web-based “sharing economy” platforms that have bridged, and indeed blurred, the gap between consumers and producers. But this upsurge has also created new challenges for measuring GDP, and, against a backdrop of slowing rates of productivity growth, has led some to question whether the slowdown reflects these new transactions.
The country snapshots below are extracted from OECD Economic Outlook No 100, November 2016. For details and updates, visit www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook.
Since the 1970s, economic growth in Korea has largely been driven by big companies such as Samsung, Hyundai and LG. These so-called chaebol have been remarkably successful, but have dominated the economy, with little room for small and medium-sized businesses (SME) to gain traction and grow.
Economic growth is projected to rebound strongly in 2017 and 2018 as the impact of recent reforms and changes in economic policy start to gain traction. Inflation remains high but it will gradually decrease towards the central bank’s target owing to widening economic slack and as the effect of administrative price increases and past currency depreciation wear off. Stronger growth will reduce unemployment from its current rate of 8.5%.
Economic growth is projected to pick up to 3% by 2018. The decline in resource-sector investment will tail off and the non-resource sector will be supported by a steady increase in household consumption and investment as wages and employment rise. Further falls in unemployment will help reduce inequality and are not expected to generate strong inflationary pressures.
After four years of disappointing growth, economic activity picked up in 2016. It has been supported by a fiscal reform that boosted household disposable income, a catch-up of investment and solid job creation, especially among elderly, women and immigrants. These factors will continue to support growth in 2017 and, to a lesser extent, in 2018.
Economic growth is projected to rise only slightly over the next two years. Sluggish real wage growth will hold back private consumption, although lower taxation of labour will support employment. Investment is moderate, despite high profit margins and favourable financial conditions. Consumer price inflation is projected to be stable at under 2%.
The economy is emerging from a severe and protracted recession. Political uncertainty has diminished, consumer and business confidence are rising and investment has strengthened. However, unemployment is projected to continue rising until 2017 and decline only gradually thereafter. Inflation will gradually return into the target range.
Economic growth is projected to increase to 2.3% in 2018. As contraction in the resources sector slows, activity in the rest of the economy is projected to strengthen. Non-energy exports should continue to benefit from stronger export market growth and earlier exchange rate depreciation. Consumer price inflation should pick up to around 2% as the effect of falling energy prices fades and excess capacity is gradually eliminated.
Economic growth moderated in 2016, reflecting weaker commodity prices and external demand, while consumer and business confidence have been fragile. Growth is projected to edge up in 2017 and 2018 as a somewhat stronger global economy underpins a gradual recovery in investment and private consumption. As the effects of past currency depreciation wear off, inflation will fall into the central bank’s tolerance range.
Economic growth is being supported by stimulus, but is set to edge down further to 6.1% by 2018. At the same time, risks are rising. The economy is undergoing transitions on several fronts. Private investment will be reinvigorated by the removal of entry restrictions in some service industries, but held back by adjustment in several heavy industries. Housing prices are again rising fast in the bigger cities, but working off housing inventories in smaller cities will take time. Consumption growth is set to hold up, especially as incomes rise and urbanisation continues. Reductions in excess capacity will ease downward pressure on producer prices but consumer price inflation will remain low. Import demand for goods will be damped by on-shoring, while services imports, in particular tourism, will grow rapidly. Exports will be held back by weak global demand and loss of competitiveness.
Economic growth is projected to pick up in 2017 and 2018, driven by stronger external demand and a recovery in agriculture following the end of El Niño. The current account deficit remains high, but is projected to narrow gradually as the sharp peso depreciation contains imports and spurs non-traditional exports. Inequalities remain high despite a slight decline in unemployment.
The economy is projected to continue to expand at a strong pace. Growth will be driven by robust household consumption and increased exports due to stronger demand in the US. Investment will be led by public infrastructure planned in the coming years. Inflation is starting to pick up and will return to the central bank’s target range of 2-4% at the end of 2016.
Stable economic growth is projected for 2017 and 2018. Solid labour demand will push unemployment towards its lowest rate in the last two decades, supporting consumption. Investment was cut sharply in 2016 due to the transition in EU funding programmes, but is projected to rebound in 2017. Rising cost pressures will push consumer price inflation to the 2% target during 2017.
Economic growth is projected to gradually strengthen to 1.9% in 2018 fuelled by investment and exports. Household consumption growth will remain robust, backed by employment growth, higher real wages and rising property prices. Both residential and business investment will pick up due to low interest rates and increasing capacity utilisation. The current account surplus will remain sizeable.
GDP growth is projected to gain momentum in 2017 and reach 2.9% in 2018, mainly driven by domestic demand. Private consumption will remain robust and public investment will pick up, sustained by EU funds. Despite a favourable business environment and good financing conditions, private investment will recover only slowly. Exports will strengthen backed by increasing external demand. However, maintaining price competitiveness will be challenging due to increasing labour costs.
Economic growth is projected to remain subdued. Despite supportive monetary conditions, investment weakness will persist, reflecting low demand, banking sector fragilities and uncertainties about European integration. High unemployment and modest wage growth will hold back private consumption, while exports will be hampered by soft global trade and by weaker growth in the UK following the Brexit referendum. Inflation is set to rise very gradually. Across euro area countries, major differences in growth and unemployment prospects will persist.
Rising private consumption and investment growth have pulled the economy out of recession. However, output growth is projected to remain sluggish over the coming years, as domestic demand growth is projected to weaken again, although export growth will rise significantly as external demand edges up and competitiveness improves. Unemployment will decline modestly and inflation will pick up only slowly.
GDP growth is projected to edge up to 1.6% by 2018, as tax cuts and faster job growth support stronger private consumption. Business investment should also pick up owing to tax reductions and low interest rates. In turn, the unemployment rate should continue to gradually fall, thanks to lower social security contributions, hiring subsidies and significant upscaling of training available to jobseekers. Inflation will remain low, as slack persists.
Economic growth is projected to remain solid, as a robust labour market, low interest rates and a mildly expansionary fiscal stance underpin consumption and residential investment. Demand from emerging market economies and euro area countries is expected to strengthen only slowly, holding back business investment. The unemployment rate will remain at historic lows. The current account surplus will fall somewhat but will remain high.
Growth has rebounded in the second half of 2016 and is projected to gain strength in 2017 and 2018 as structural reforms start to bear fruit, the conclusion of a policy review with creditors raises business and consumer confidence and the economic and political environment stabilises. Exports of services are underperforming because of structural rigidities and capital controls (which particularly affect the export revenue from the shipping industry). Employment is projected to increase but unemployment remains far too high.
Growth should pick up in 2017 as new infrastructure projects are launched in the context of the new cycle of EU structural funding, before moderating in 2018. Private consumption should remain the main growth driver, given projected employment gains, in part supported by still large public works schemes, and faster wage growth. Increasing unit labour costs and weak markets will cut export growth.
Economic growth is strong with continued expansion in tourism, robust private consumption and favourable terms of trade. Steep wage gains, employment expansion and large investments are fuelling domestic demand. The capital controls introduced during the financial crisis are being lifted.
With projected annual growth of 7.5% in 2017-18, India will remain the fastest growing G20 economy. Private consumption will be supported by the hike in public wages and pensions and by higher agricultural production, on the back of a return to normal rain fall. Private investment will revive gradually as excess capacity in some sectors diminishes, infrastructure projects mature, corporates deleverage, banks clean their loan portfolios, and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) is implemented.
GDP growth has been high and is set to edge up in 2017 and 2018. Government infrastructure spending continues to underpin economic activity, and both private consumption and private investment are showing signs of firming. The current account deficit is projected to be stable.
Economic growth is projected to moderate gradually. The economy, particularly exports and investment, is already being slowed by the prospect of Brexit. Nonetheless, the Irish economy will continue to expand on the back of solid domestic demand and strong employment and wage growth.
The 2016 pick-up in growth should continue, reaching 3.25% in 2017-18. Support from slight budgetary easing, very low interest rates and measures to support the low-paid should continue to stimulate domestic demand and employment. However, the ongoing weakness of the international environment and the impact of exchange rate appreciation on foreign trade are projected to hold back export growth.
The economy will grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. Despite stronger job gains, private consumption growth has weakened following rising uncertainty and declining consumer confidence. The large stock of non-performing loans and the uncertain recovery keep hampering banks’ loan disbursements, hindering the recovery of investment. Low growth in Italy’s export markets and geopolitical tensions are restraining exports.
Economic growth is projected to reach 1% in 2017 before slowing to 0.8% in 2018, boosting headline inflation to 1.25% by the end of 2018. With three supplementary budgets in 2016, fiscal consolidation is pausing, helping Japan to cope with the impact of the yen appreciation. Private consumption is projected to continue rising in the context of labour shortages and the historically high level of corporate profits.
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