Growth should pick up in 2017 as new infrastructure projects are launched in the context of the new cycle of EU structural funding, before moderating in 2018. Private consumption should remain the main growth driver, given projected employment gains, in part supported by still large public works schemes, and faster wage growth. Increasing unit labour costs and weak markets will cut export growth. 

Economic growth is strong with continued expansion in tourism, robust private consumption and favourable terms of trade. Steep wage gains, employment expansion and large investments are fuelling domestic demand. The capital controls introduced during the financial crisis are being lifted. 

With projected annual growth of 7.5% in 2017-18, India will remain the fastest growing G20 economy. Private consumption will be supported by the hike in public wages and pensions and by higher agricultural production, on the back of a return to normal rain fall. Private investment will revive gradually as excess capacity in some sectors diminishes, infrastructure projects mature, corporates deleverage, banks clean their loan portfolios, and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) is implemented. 

GDP growth has been high and is set to edge up in 2017 and 2018. Government infrastructure spending continues to underpin economic activity, and both private consumption and private investment are showing signs of firming. The current account deficit is projected to be stable. 

Economic growth is projected to moderate gradually. The economy, particularly exports and investment, is already being slowed by the prospect of Brexit. Nonetheless, the Irish economy will continue to expand on the back of solid domestic demand and strong employment and wage growth. 

The 2016 pick-up in growth should continue, reaching 3.25% in 2017-18. Support from slight budgetary easing, very low interest rates and measures to support the low-paid should continue to stimulate domestic demand and employment. However, the ongoing weakness of the international environment and the impact of exchange rate appreciation on foreign trade are projected to hold back export growth. 

The economy will grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. Despite stronger job gains, private consumption growth has weakened following rising uncertainty and declining consumer confidence. The large stock of non-performing loans and the uncertain recovery keep hampering banks’ loan disbursements, hindering the recovery of investment. Low growth in Italy’s export markets and geopolitical tensions are restraining exports. 

Economic growth is projected to reach 1% in 2017 before slowing to 0.8% in 2018, boosting headline inflation to 1.25% by the end of 2018. With three supplementary budgets in 2016, fiscal consolidation is pausing, helping Japan to cope with the impact of the yen appreciation. Private consumption is projected to continue rising in the context of labour shortages and the historically high level of corporate profits. 

Economic growth continued at a moderate pace in 2016, supported by a supplementary budget and record low interest rates. Growth is projected to edge up from 2.75% in 2016-17 to 3% in 2018. Inflation is projected to converge to the central bank’s 2% target by 2018, and the current account surplus to remain large at 6.5% of GDP. 

Economic growth is projected to pick up strongly as the disbursement of new EU funds increases investment and the recovery in Russia increases exports. Household consumption will remain robust, supported by continued wage growth, although unemployment will remain high. Wage growth is set to exceed productivity growth, which will hold back the improvement of export performance.

Economic growth is projected to rise to 2.8% by 2018, as investment benefits from low real interest rates and a gradual recovery in export markets. Consumption growth will hold up following a series of increases in the minimum wage. Inflationary pressures will mount as wages rise in response to a further decline in the unemployment rate. 

Economic growth is projected to remain robust, due to ongoing supportive monetary conditions, dynamic domestic demand and a rebound in financial sector activity, which will foster exports. Inflation is projected to rise as slack diminishes and wages are pushed up by the next round of indexation, due at the beginning of 2017. 

Economic activity has been resilient to sharply lower oil prices, weak world trade growth and monetary policy tightening in the US. Domestic demand remains the main driver of economic activity, supported by recent structural reforms that have cut prices to consumers, notably on electricity and telecoms services. Growth will be held back in 2017 and 2018, mostly through investment and consumer confidence, following uncertainties about future US policy, although the economy could benefit from stronger import demand from the US. 

GDP growth is projected to remain broad-based and steady at around 2%. Private consumption will benefit from improving labour market conditions. The housing market will strengthen further on the back of low interest rates. Wages are set to accelerate as unemployment continues to decline, while inflation will increase gradually from its low level. The current account surplus is expected to remain high despite firm domestic demand and lower gas exports.  

Recent strong economic growth is projected to moderate to less than 3% in 2018. Both net migration and expenditure on the Canterbury earthquake rebuild are expected to slow gradually, slowing domestic demand, especially construction activity. The latest earthquake will entail rebuilding investment, but this is not included in the projection because it is too early to judge the economic effects. Growth will continue to be driven by tourism, with dairy price increases providing a further boost to incomes through the terms of trade. Inflation is likely to rise but remain below the mid-point of the official 1-3% target range.  

Economic growth will strengthen gradually until 2018 supported by higher private consumption and a rebound in non-oil investment, helped by better global prospects and a weaker currency. The pace of decline in petroleum investment is set to slow. The unemployment rate should peak in 2016, whereas inflation will edge down as the impact of the exchange rate depreciation abates and economic slack continues.  

GDP growth is projected to strengthen to around 3% annually in 2017-18, thanks to higher social transfers, low interest rates and rising disbursements of EU funds. Increasing disposable income and consumption, the switchover to the new budgetary period for EU funds and diminishing spare capacity should lead to an acceleration in investment. Stronger aggregate demand is expected to underpin a return to modest inflation.  

GDP growth is projected to remain subdued, at about 1.25% in 2017 and 2018. High corporate leverage and a fragile banking sector will hold back private investment and still high unemployment will restrain consumption growth. As economic lack will persist, inflation will remain low.  

After two years of recession, the economy will return to growth in 2017, as higher real wages boost private consumption and lower interest rate support investment. However, structural bottlenecks continue to hinder further diversification of the economy. The strength of the recovery will also remain dependent on the rebound of oil prices. The poverty rate, which increased from 11% in 2014 to 13% in 2015, will progressively decline as the labour market strengthens and inflation slows down.  

Strong economic growth is set to continue, reaching 3.8% in 2018. An improving labour market will underpin household spending. Investment is expected to recover, as a slowdown in projects financed by EU funds in 2016 will be compensated by other new public infrastructure spending and stronger business investment. Exports will continue to benefit from the expansion in the automotive sector, which is ramping up production.  

Economic activity is projected to gather pace in 2017 and 2018. Private consumption will accelerate on the back of employment gains and faster real wage growth. Investment will pick up as renewed EU structural funds bolster infrastructure investments, firms react to capacity constraints, and housing construction responds to higher property prices. Inflation is set to increase as economic slack disappears during 2018.

Economic growth is projected to rebound in 2017 and strengthen further in 2018, driven by household consumption and investment. In particular, the improvement in electricity production removes bottlenecks and should boost confidence and therefore investment, provided that political uncertainties dissipate. Rising production costs, together with the earlier rand appreciation should weigh on exports. 

The Spanish economy has grown strongly in 2016, led by domestic demand spurred by easy monetary policy in the euro area and a fiscal stimulus. The expansionary phase is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, with domestic demand leading the recovery, albeit at a slower pace as some factors that have contributed to boost consumption, such as low oil prices and lower taxes, will recede. Inflation will gradually pick up as the effects of low oil prices diminish, but pressures will remain moderate due to still high unemployment. 

Economic growth has been strong, but is projected to decline. Shortages of qualified labour and constructible land will slow residential investment, while uncertainty about global demand will slow business investment. Modest real wage gains will continue to damp consumption. The unemployment rate is levelling off as difficult-to-hire low-skilled workers make up a rising share of jobseekers. Labour market tightening will help lift inflation gradually. 

Economic growth is rising but will remain moderate as the global outlook remains subdued. The labour market has been resilient, and the recent modest unemployment increase should be reversed by 2018. Interest rates are projected to remain low, helping to revive domestic demand. Deflation is ending as the currency has stabilised. The huge current account surplus will persist. 

GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to under 3% in 2016, but is projected to pick up gradually to around 3.75% by 2018. The Turkish economy continues to face geopolitical headwinds and unsettled political conditions, after having weathered a coup attempt in July and engaged in military operations in Syria. 

The Brexit referendum vote has reduced growth prospects and increased volatility, as reflected by the large currency depreciation. Monetary policy has mitigated the immediate impact of the shock by stabilising financial markets and shoring up consumer confidence. This projection assumes the UK will operate with a most favoured nation status after 2019, but there is considerable uncertainty about this, which will increasingly weigh on growth, and in particular private investment, including foreign direct investment. Higher inflation is projected to hit households’ purchasing power and to reduce corporate margins, weakening private consumption and investment. As growth slows, the unemployment rate is projected to rise. 

Economic growth is set to strengthen in 2017 and 2018, as an assumed fiscal stimulus boosts the economy and the effects of dollar appreciation, declines in energy investment and a substantial inventory correction abate. Employment has risen steadily, although the pace is expected to ease somewhat in 2017. A pick-up in wages will further support growth, offsetting somewhat sluggish external demand. 

©OECD

Chairman Emeritus of Young & Rubicam Peter Georgescu visited the OECD on 3 May 2016. The author gave a talk on inequality. Part of The Coffees of the Secretary-General series, you can read the complete transcript of Mr Georgescu’s presentation below.  

© Reuters/Thomas Mukoya

Innovative business models are creating new dynamics between formal companies and informal micro-entrepreneurs.

Economic data

E-Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the latest news from the OECD by signing up for our e-newsletter :

Twitter feed

Suscribe now

<b>Subscribe now!</b>

To receive your exclusive paper editions delivered to you directly


Online edition
Previous editions

Don't miss

  • Trade is an important point of focus in today’s international economy. This video presents facts and statistics from OECD’s most recent publications on this topic.
  • How do the largest community of British expats living in Spain feel about Brexit? Britons living in Orihuela Costa, Alicante give their views.
  • Brexit is taking up Europe's energy and focus, according to OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. Watch video.
  • OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann and former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King discuss the economic merits of a US border adjustment tax and the outlook for US economic growth.
  • Africa's cities at the forefront of progress: Africa is urbanising at a historically rapid pace coupled with an unprecedented demographic boom. By 2050, about 56% of Africans are expected to live in cities. This poses major policy challenges, but make no mistake: Africa’s cities and towns are engines of progress that, if harnessed correctly, can fuel the entire continent’s sustainable development.
  • OECD Observer i-Sheet Series: OECD Observer i-Sheets are smart contents pages on major issues and events. Use them to find current or recent articles, video, books and working papers. To browse on paper and read on line, or simply download.
  • How sustainable is the ocean as a source of economic development? The Ocean Economy in 2030 examines the risks and uncertainties surrounding the future development of ocean industries, the innovations required in science and technology to support their progress, their potential contribution to green growth and some of the implications for ocean management.
  • The OECD Gender Initiative examines existing barriers to gender equality in education, employment, and entrepreneurship. The gender portal monitors the progress made by governments to promote gender equality in both OECD and non-OECD countries and provides good practices based on analytical tools and reliable data.
  • They are green and local --It’s a new generation of entrepreneurs in Kenya with big dreams of sustainable energy and the drive to see their innovative technologies throughout Africa. blogs.worldbank.org
  • Interested in a career in Paris at the OECD? The OECD is a major international organisation, with a mission to build better policies for better lives. With our hub based in one of the world's global cities and offices across continents, find out more at www.oecd.org/careers .

Most Popular Articles

OECD Insights Blog

NOTE: All signed articles in the OECD Observer express the opinions of the authors
and do not necessarily represent the official views of OECD member countries.

All rights reserved. OECD 2017