Economic growth is set to strengthen in 2017 and 2018, as an assumed fiscal stimulus boosts the economy and the effects of dollar appreciation, declines in energy investment and a substantial inventory correction abate. Employment has risen steadily, although the pace is expected to ease somewhat in 2017. A pick-up in wages will further support growth, offsetting somewhat sluggish external demand. 

The Brexit referendum vote has reduced growth prospects and increased volatility, as reflected by the large currency depreciation. Monetary policy has mitigated the immediate impact of the shock by stabilising financial markets and shoring up consumer confidence. This projection assumes the UK will operate with a most favoured nation status after 2019, but there is considerable uncertainty about this, which will increasingly weigh on growth, and in particular private investment, including foreign direct investment. Higher inflation is projected to hit households’ purchasing power and to reduce corporate margins, weakening private consumption and investment. As growth slows, the unemployment rate is projected to rise. 

GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to under 3% in 2016, but is projected to pick up gradually to around 3.75% by 2018. The Turkish economy continues to face geopolitical headwinds and unsettled political conditions, after having weathered a coup attempt in July and engaged in military operations in Syria. 

Economic growth is rising but will remain moderate as the global outlook remains subdued. The labour market has been resilient, and the recent modest unemployment increase should be reversed by 2018. Interest rates are projected to remain low, helping to revive domestic demand. Deflation is ending as the currency has stabilised. The huge current account surplus will persist. 

Economic growth has been strong, but is projected to decline. Shortages of qualified labour and constructible land will slow residential investment, while uncertainty about global demand will slow business investment. Modest real wage gains will continue to damp consumption. The unemployment rate is levelling off as difficult-to-hire low-skilled workers make up a rising share of jobseekers. Labour market tightening will help lift inflation gradually. 

The Spanish economy has grown strongly in 2016, led by domestic demand spurred by easy monetary policy in the euro area and a fiscal stimulus. The expansionary phase is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, with domestic demand leading the recovery, albeit at a slower pace as some factors that have contributed to boost consumption, such as low oil prices and lower taxes, will recede. Inflation will gradually pick up as the effects of low oil prices diminish, but pressures will remain moderate due to still high unemployment. 

Economic growth is projected to rebound in 2017 and strengthen further in 2018, driven by household consumption and investment. In particular, the improvement in electricity production removes bottlenecks and should boost confidence and therefore investment, provided that political uncertainties dissipate. Rising production costs, together with the earlier rand appreciation should weigh on exports. 

Strong economic growth is set to continue, reaching 3.8% in 2018. An improving labour market will underpin household spending. Investment is expected to recover, as a slowdown in projects financed by EU funds in 2016 will be compensated by other new public infrastructure spending and stronger business investment. Exports will continue to benefit from the expansion in the automotive sector, which is ramping up production.  

After two years of recession, the economy will return to growth in 2017, as higher real wages boost private consumption and lower interest rate support investment. However, structural bottlenecks continue to hinder further diversification of the economy. The strength of the recovery will also remain dependent on the rebound of oil prices. The poverty rate, which increased from 11% in 2014 to 13% in 2015, will progressively decline as the labour market strengthens and inflation slows down.  

GDP growth is projected to remain subdued, at about 1.25% in 2017 and 2018. High corporate leverage and a fragile banking sector will hold back private investment and still high unemployment will restrain consumption growth. As economic lack will persist, inflation will remain low.  

GDP growth is projected to strengthen to around 3% annually in 2017-18, thanks to higher social transfers, low interest rates and rising disbursements of EU funds. Increasing disposable income and consumption, the switchover to the new budgetary period for EU funds and diminishing spare capacity should lead to an acceleration in investment. Stronger aggregate demand is expected to underpin a return to modest inflation.  

Economic growth will strengthen gradually until 2018 supported by higher private consumption and a rebound in non-oil investment, helped by better global prospects and a weaker currency. The pace of decline in petroleum investment is set to slow. The unemployment rate should peak in 2016, whereas inflation will edge down as the impact of the exchange rate depreciation abates and economic slack continues.  

Recent strong economic growth is projected to moderate to less than 3% in 2018. Both net migration and expenditure on the Canterbury earthquake rebuild are expected to slow gradually, slowing domestic demand, especially construction activity. The latest earthquake will entail rebuilding investment, but this is not included in the projection because it is too early to judge the economic effects. Growth will continue to be driven by tourism, with dairy price increases providing a further boost to incomes through the terms of trade. Inflation is likely to rise but remain below the mid-point of the official 1-3% target range.  

GDP growth is projected to remain broad-based and steady at around 2%. Private consumption will benefit from improving labour market conditions. The housing market will strengthen further on the back of low interest rates. Wages are set to accelerate as unemployment continues to decline, while inflation will increase gradually from its low level. The current account surplus is expected to remain high despite firm domestic demand and lower gas exports.  

Economic activity has been resilient to sharply lower oil prices, weak world trade growth and monetary policy tightening in the US. Domestic demand remains the main driver of economic activity, supported by recent structural reforms that have cut prices to consumers, notably on electricity and telecoms services. Growth will be held back in 2017 and 2018, mostly through investment and consumer confidence, following uncertainties about future US policy, although the economy could benefit from stronger import demand from the US. 

Economic growth is projected to remain robust, due to ongoing supportive monetary conditions, dynamic domestic demand and a rebound in financial sector activity, which will foster exports. Inflation is projected to rise as slack diminishes and wages are pushed up by the next round of indexation, due at the beginning of 2017. 

Economic growth is projected to rise to 2.8% by 2018, as investment benefits from low real interest rates and a gradual recovery in export markets. Consumption growth will hold up following a series of increases in the minimum wage. Inflationary pressures will mount as wages rise in response to a further decline in the unemployment rate. 

Economic growth is projected to pick up strongly as the disbursement of new EU funds increases investment and the recovery in Russia increases exports. Household consumption will remain robust, supported by continued wage growth, although unemployment will remain high. Wage growth is set to exceed productivity growth, which will hold back the improvement of export performance.

Economic growth continued at a moderate pace in 2016, supported by a supplementary budget and record low interest rates. Growth is projected to edge up from 2.75% in 2016-17 to 3% in 2018. Inflation is projected to converge to the central bank’s 2% target by 2018, and the current account surplus to remain large at 6.5% of GDP. 

Economic growth is projected to reach 1% in 2017 before slowing to 0.8% in 2018, boosting headline inflation to 1.25% by the end of 2018. With three supplementary budgets in 2016, fiscal consolidation is pausing, helping Japan to cope with the impact of the yen appreciation. Private consumption is projected to continue rising in the context of labour shortages and the historically high level of corporate profits. 

The economy will grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. Despite stronger job gains, private consumption growth has weakened following rising uncertainty and declining consumer confidence. The large stock of non-performing loans and the uncertain recovery keep hampering banks’ loan disbursements, hindering the recovery of investment. Low growth in Italy’s export markets and geopolitical tensions are restraining exports. 

©OECD

Chairman Emeritus of Young & Rubicam Peter Georgescu visited the OECD on 3 May 2016. The author gave a talk on inequality. Part of The Coffees of the Secretary-General series, you can read the complete transcript of Mr Georgescu’s presentation below.  

While policy making and OECD membership helps explain much of Korea’s successes in the last two decades, major firms have had a role to play too. In fact, Korea is associated with several global household brands, as strong demand for the likes of Samsung curved televisions, Hyundai hybrid cars and K-pop hits like “Gangnam Style” jolting the Land of the Morning Calm into the sixth-largest exporter in the world. But while productivity in many large manufacturers has pushed Korea into the world’s top ten producers of cars, ships, mobile phones and DVDs, productivity in smaller firms and the service industry means overall productivity is half the level of leading OECD countries. 

©Michael Dean/OECD Observer

Korea’s transition from one of the poorest countries on earth in the early 1960s to the world’s 11th-largest economy and sixth-largest exporter by 2015 is unprecedented. 

© Reuters/Thomas Mukoya

Innovative business models are creating new dynamics between formal companies and informal micro-entrepreneurs.

The world’s oceans, seas and rivers are a major source of wealth, creating trillions of dollars’ worth in goods and services as well as employing billions of people. […] Yet Africa’s blue potential remains untapped.

Screenshot of OECD Chief Economist Catherine L Mann on Bloomberg TV, 9 November Bloomberg TV

The global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace this year than in 2015, with only a modest uptick expected in 2017, the OECD’s latest interim Economic Outlook warns. The Outlook warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages.

Click to enlarge

Real GDP growth slowed in most of the emerging economies in Asia in 2014 and remained subdued in 2015, the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2016 says. In fact, most countries in the region recorded slower growth in 2015 than in 2014–the exceptions being Brunei Darussalam, Thailand, Viet Nam and India. China and the ASEAN region recorded their slowest growth since the start of the global financial crisis. 

Top earners are more likely to be salaried executives or company founders, like Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg ©Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

Across much of the OECD, the share of national income taken by the top 1% of earners has risen, sometimes sharply, in recent decades. 

The Internet is now an essential part of our lives and a critical element of the world economy. Internet penetration increased almost sevenfold in the past 15 years, from 6.5% of the world population in 2000 to 43% in 2015.

Economic data

GDP growth: +0.6% Q2 2018 year-on-year
Consumer price inflation: 2.9% Sept 2018 annual
Trade: +2.7% exp, +3.0% imp, Q4 2017
Unemployment: 5.2% Sept 2018
Last update: 13 Nov 2018

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