The OECD Economic Outlook Highlights

Observer 204, February/March 1997
The convergence of cyclical conditions in the OECD area is likely to continue in the coming year, with robust and sustainable growth in the United States and a continuation of the expansions in Japan and Europe, following a pause in 1996 (Table 1). At the same time, substantial output gaps suggest that the risk of a resurgence of inflation will remain low in Japan and continental Europe, at least for the next year or two (Table 2). And in Europe, high unemployment will remain a major problem (Table 3). In some other countries, particularly the United States, where unemployment is low, and the United Kingdom, where it
has fallen significantly, there may be a risk of inflationary pressures although, as yet, there are no convincing indications that inflation is rising. Short-term macro-economic policy requirements for achieving and enhancing non-inflationary growth therefore differ according to country- or region-specificsituations. In a nutshell, judicious use of monetary policy, together with credible, sustained fiscal consolidation over time without heavy concentration of restraint in a short span of time would contribute to faster growth of output and employment without compromising the objectives of inflation control. To read the full article, download the PDF file below.



Economic data

GDP growth: +0.5% Q2 2019 year-on-year
Consumer price inflation: 1.6% September 2019 annual
Trade: -1.9% exp, -0.9% imp, Q2 2019
Unemployment: 5.2% September 2019
Last update: 18 November 2019

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