Country snapshots 2017-18: Brazil

Fiscal adjustment needed

The economy is emerging from a severe and protracted recession. Political uncertainty has diminished, consumer and business confidence are rising and investment has strengthened. However, unemployment is projected to continue rising until 2017 and decline only gradually thereafter. Inflation will gradually return into the target range. 

The fiscal stance is mildly contractionary over the projection period, which strikes an adequate balance between macroeconomic stability requirements and the need to restore the sustainability of public finances through a credible medium-term consolidation path. An effective fiscal adjustment would allow monetary policy to loosen further and support a recovery of investment. Raising productivity will depend on strengthening competition, including through lower trade barriers, fewer administrative burdens and improvements in infrastructure. 

GDP growth

2013

Current prices BRL billion

2016

  

2017

% real change

2018

  
5 316.5 -3.4 0.0 1.2

Visit www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm

©OECD Observer No 308 Q4 2016




Economic data

GDP: +0.43% Q1 2017
Employment rate: 67.2% Q4 2016
Annual inflation: 2.4% Apr 2017
Trade: +3.0% exp, +4.0% imp, Q1 2017
Unemployment: 6.008% Mar 2017
LOOKING AHEAD: The outlook, to judge by factory order books, building permits, long-term interest rates and other "leading" indicators that point to future activity remains modest at best. Click curve to find out more country trends.
Updated: 14 June 2017

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