Country snapshots 2017-18: Russian Federation

Coming out of recession

After two years of recession, the economy will return to growth in 2017, as higher real wages boost private consumption and lower interest rate support investment. However, structural bottlenecks continue to hinder further diversification of the economy. The strength of the recovery will also remain dependent on the rebound of oil prices. The poverty rate, which increased from 11% in 2014 to 13% in 2015, will progressively decline as the labour market strengthens and inflation slows down.  

Tight monetary policy has successfully brought down inflation, and now can be eased further to support the recovery, especially investment. Fiscal policy has been rightly accommodative during the recession. Fiscal consolidation plans for 2017 and 2018 aim at reducing the headline deficit by about 1% of GDP per year on average. A less tight fiscal policy is projected, as considerable economic slack remains and the electoral cycle may push up public spending. 

GDP growth

2013

Current prices RUB trillion

2016

  

2017

% real change

2018

   

71.0 -0.8 0.8 1.0

Visit www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm                              

©OECD Observer No 308 Q4 2016                               




Economic data

GDP growth: +0.6% Q4 2017 year-on-year
Consumer price inflation: 2.3% Dec 2017 annual
Trade: +4.3% exp, +4.3% imp, Q3 2017
Unemployment: 5.5% Dec 2017
Last update: 23 Feb 2018

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