Italy

Inflation could rise

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Exports and investment activity rose markedly in the first half of 2004, ending their protracted slump. Domestic demand will sustain the recovery, though the passthrough of higher oil prices may restrain demand growth temporarily.
GDP growth of 1.5% to 2% is projected over 2005-06, which would be above the estimated rate of potential. Inflation could start to rise again as the output gap closes.A planned tax cut in 2005-06 and a pension reform as of 2008 could improve the conditions for growth, but a sustained public debt decline will be a sine qua non for building private agents’ confidence, so that more and earlier public spending reforms are needed. Competition reforms in service sectors, including energy, transport, finance and education, could help to narrow the inflation gap with euro area partners, while also spurring innovation and a more competitive export structure.
Population (000s), 200357 478
Area (000 sq km)301
CurrencyEuro
GDP (Billion USD), 20031 468.3
Life expectancy at birth (Women, Men), 2002 82.9, 76.8
Total labour force (000s), 200324 229
Government typeRepublic
Indicators% change unless otherwise indicated
200420052006
GDP growth1.31.72.1
Household savings ratio11.310.910.3
Consumer price index2.12.52.2
Short-term interest rate (%)2.12.12.7
Unemployment rate (%)8.17.57.3
General government financial balance (% GDP)-2.9-3.1-3.6
Current account balance (% GDP)-0.5-1.6-1.9
Source: OECD© OECD Observer No 245, November 2004


Economic data

GDP growth: +0.2% Q4 2019
Consumer price inflation: 1.7% March 2020
Trade (G20): -0.1% exp, -1.3% imp, Q4 2019
Unemployment: 5.6% March 2020
Sharp drop in OECD leading indicators point to darker outlook: Last update: 14 May 2020

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