Subsequently, a mild recovery will emerge on the back of fiscal stimulus, easier monetary conditions and a pickup in world trade.

Despite the waning of the international financial turbulence, the main uncertainty in these projections remains the duration and severity of the worldwide downturn. Another uncertainty is whether the manufacturing sector can maintain its position as a subcontractor to the German automobile industry in face of the worldwide restructuring of this sector. The government is implementing a fiscal stimulus of more than 3% of GDP. To secure fiscal sustainability, this stimulus should be withdrawn as soon as the strength of the recovery allows.

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©OECD Observer No 274, July 2009