Poland: Shallow recession

Growth slowed in the second half of 2008 but was still positive in early 2009. Given the global downturn, activity is projected to contract in 2009, though the recession should be relatively shallow, notably due to relatively modest trade dependence, historically low interest rates, moderate indebtedness of the private sector, income tax cuts and the implementation of many infrastructure projects related to transfers of EU funds and the 2012 football championships.

Price pressures have built up recently, notably due to a large fall in the exchange rate but, as economic slack increases, they should recede steadily.

After the sharp upward revision of the general government deficit for 2008, the fiscal outlook looks considerably worse as the deficit is expected to continue to deteriorate in the next two years. As this will push the public debt close to the constitutional limit of 60% of GDP, the government will have to stand ready to implement fiscal consolidation measures once recovery begins in 2010. These should be accompanied by further monetary easing.

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See also www.oecd.org/poland

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©OECD Observer No 274, July 2009

Economic data

GDP growth: -9.8% Q2/Q1 2020 2020
Consumer price inflation: 1.3% Sep 2020 annual
Trade (G20): -17.7% exp, -16.7% imp, Q2/Q1 2020
Unemployment: 7.3% Sep 2020
Last update: 10 Nov 2020

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