Russian Federation: Some recovery expected

Russia is suffering a severe recession, but the rebound in commodity prices and the expected effects of policy stimulus point to some recovery through 2009 and into 2010. If oil prices remain around recent levels the current account will remain in surplus and net private capital outflows will ease, allowing the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves to consolidate their recent recovery.

Inflation is expected to decline this year and next.

The delay in delivering fiscal stimulus aggravated the initial impact of the economic crisis; the budgeted increases in expenditure should now be implemented quickly, in particular for social protection and active labour market policies. Any windfalls in oil revenues relative to budget assumptions should, however, be saved. More public assistance may be needed for banks as non-performing loans rise, but less emphasis should be placed on supporting individual non-financial enterprises, and further resort to protectionist measures should be avoided.

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See also www.oecd.org/russia

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©OECD Observer No 274, July 2009




Economic data

GDP growth: +0.2% Q4 2019
Consumer price inflation: 1.7% March 2020
Trade (G20): -0.1% exp, -1.3% imp, Q4 2019
Unemployment: 5.6% March 2020
Sharp drop in OECD leading indicators point to darker outlook: Last update: 14 May 2020

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