Russian Federation: Inflation on the decline

After an initial sharp rebound from the deep recession of the past year, real GDP is projected to converge towards its potential. The decline in inflation seen since early 2009 is expected to continue into 2010 before flattening out. The current account surplus will increase in 2010 as a result of terms of trade gains, but it will decline in 2011 as import growth strengthens again. Net private capital flows should strengthen, allowing a rebuilding of reserves.

Although recovery is in prospect, the large output gap and subdued inflation suggest that policy stimulus should not be removed too hastily. Fiscal policy should be managed to avoid dislocative demand effects from a surge of expenditures in late 2009 followed by a tightening in 2010. Discriminatory anti-crisis measures to protect domestic industries are counter-productive and should be unwound as quickly as possible.

©OECD Observer 2010

Economic data

GDP growth: -9.8% Q2/Q1 2020 2020
Consumer price inflation: 1.3% Sep 2020 annual
Trade (G20): -17.7% exp, -16.7% imp, Q2/Q1 2020
Unemployment: 7.3% Sep 2020
Last update: 10 Nov 2020

OECD Observer Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the latest news from the OECD by signing up for our e-newsletter :

Twitter feed

Digital Editions

Don't miss

Most Popular Articles

NOTE: All signed articles in the OECD Observer express the opinions of the authors
and do not necessarily represent the official views of OECD member countries.

All rights reserved. OECD 2020